Talking about proposition or “prop” bets is what, in part, makes Super Bowl so much fun. Each golf tournament is really like the Super Bowl every week!
Based upon my analysis in Part 1 and Part 2 of this betting preview, we can really have some fun looking at the prop arena. There are many places to start, but the best entertainment begins with Round 1 on Thursday.
Considering First Round Leaders (FRL) is exciting. Who will lead after just one round? Last week Sebastian Munoz blitzed the field at the AT&T Byron Nelson with a twelve under par 60. He was listed at +8000.
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An 80-1 longshot was the same odds as Strike Rich at the Kentucky Derby. Who in this championship field could be the longshot to stand atop the leaderboard Thursday night?
I have three people on my radar…
- Jordan Spieth (+2800) shot 131 (64-67) over his last two rounds at the AT&T Byron Nelson. If you believe Jordan will win this week, he’ll need a fast start. Here’s why? The 36-hole leader at all seven major championships contested at Southern Hills eventually won the tournament on Sunday.
- Cam Smith (+3300) was one shot out of the lead at Augusta after Round 1 a month ago. The parallels between the courses have already been proven. Look for him to light it up early with the putter Thursday.
- Joaquin Niemann (+5000) has the perfect complement of ball flight and short game to go low just like he did at Riviera. He’s rankled second on tour in Round 1 scoring, only behind Patrick Cantlay. He showed great form last week in the early rounds of the tournament in Dallas. Chances are he may do it again.
Placements are great opportunities to select your players further down the odds board to finish high on the leaderboard when you suspect they probably won’t win.
Top 10 players:
- Justin Thomas (+150) – Whether Justin’s putter shows up or not, he has the skill to place here. Hands down the best current ball striker in the field from top to bottom.
- Shane Lowry (+275) – Last year he finished tied for fourth at the PGA Championship and a month ago third at the Masters. Just like Justin, his iron game will let him contend on a course like Southern Hills.
Top 20’s and 40’s are chances to continue to search for longshots who possess the desired talents we wrote about in Part 2. First a couple Top 20 considerations:
- Daniel Berger (+190) – We can’t say how much the wind will blow over the Tulsa landscape, but it will. When it does, players like Daniel Berger with a low-ball flight can find great success on the scorecard.
- Cam Young (+250) – He has six Top 20 finishes since the start of 2022.
Considerations for players to finish in the Top 40 on Thusday:
- Tiger Woods (+100) – Tiger got off to a strong start at the Masters before running out of gas. Don’t count the four-time PGA Champion out of another strong start Thursday.
- Matt Kuchar (+160) – Over his last 5 tournaments, he has gained multiple feet against the field on approach.
$$- Odds listed are from Bet MGM’s website at the time of publishing.
PGA Professional Keith Stewart writes for Read The Line.
The Professional Golfers’ Association of America (“PGA”) is not an online gambling operator, and PGAChampionship.com is not a gambling site of any kind. Odds are provided for information and entertainment purposes only. Odds were sourced from BetMGM and last updated on: [datetime stamp]. PGA makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given.
