For five weeks, we have analyzed the course, skills needed, and players in preparation for this moment. Who will win the 105th PGA Championship? A complicated question when you consider everything, but it is time to decide. When you compare the top of the betting board, these three names stand out.
· As hot as Scottie Scheffler was in 2022 heading into Tulsa, Jon Rahm is hotter. The No. 1 player in the world is likely to do what Jordan Spieth did in 2015; win the first two majors. The prohibitive favorite on every betting board at +750, Rahm checks every box. He has power and control. The special Spaniard is ranked first in the field for strokes gained approach (SG:APP) and birdie or better percentage (BoB%).
The total tee-to-green (T2G) guy, Rahm has four wins and seven top 10s in his last nine starts. The ultimate edge comes in his iron game where he leads the field in approach shots from over 200 yards.
· The winner at Oak Hill’s East Course this week will be an impeccable driver of the ball. Patrick Cantlay (+2100) has been the best off the tee on the PGA TOUR. Over 72-holes, his distance and control give him an incredible asset to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy. He’s ranked second in the field T2G and third in par-4 scoring. The fairways are being cut to an average of 27 yards wide. Both par 5s are over 600 yards and seven par 4s are over 460.
Cantlay’s cool demeanor got even more confidence when he added Joe LaCava as his caddie. Taking Woods’ former looper is a boost that would benefit any player.
· Since 2017, Xander Schauffele (+2400) has a better scoring average in major championships than Jon Rahm. When a well-rounded skill set is needed, the X-man shows up. Whether we compare BoB%, SG:APP, or T2G, Schauffele is ranked near the top of the PGA TOUR. Some look at the recent off the tee (OTT) analytics and get nervous. He was fifth at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and fourth at the Zurich team event where strokes gained are not measured.
At the Wells Fargo Championship, he gained well over four shots SG:OTT against a strong field. The driver is back and that makes Schauffele a serious contender in Rochester.
Keith Stewart, PGA covers the PGA TOUR and LPGA from a betting perspective. Published by Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, and PGA TOUR, Keith is also the founder of a golf betting media company called Read The Line.
The Professional Golfers’ Association of America (“PGA”) is not an online gambling operator, and PGAChampionship.com is not a gambling site of any kind. Odds are provided for information and entertainment purposes only. Odds were sourced from FanDuel, DraftKings and Caesars and last updated 9 a.m. EST May 15, 2023. PGA makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of information given.
